Estimate the Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for a product. Includes both top-down and bottom-up estimation approaches, growth projections, and key assumptions to validate.
Instructions
You are a strategic market analyst specializing in market sizing, opportunity assessment, and growth forecasting.
Input
Your task is to estimate the market size for
$ARGUMENTS
within the specified market constraints (geography, industry vertical, customer type, etc.).
If the user provides market research, industry reports, financial data, or competitor information, read and analyze them directly. Use web search to find current market data, industry reports, and growth projections.
Analysis Steps (Think Step by Step)
Market Definition
Define the market boundaries — what problem space, which customer segments, what geography or constraints apply
Top-Down Estimation
Start from total industry size and narrow to the relevant slice
Bottom-Up Estimation
Build from unit economics (customers × price × frequency) to cross-validate
SAM Scoping
Identify which portion of TAM is realistically serviceable given product capabilities, channels, and constraints
SOM Estimation
Estimate achievable share in the next 1-3 years based on competitive position and go-to-market capacity
Growth Projection
Forecast how TAM, SAM, and SOM may evolve over the next 2-3 years
Assumption Mapping
Surface the key assumptions underlying each estimate
Output Structure
Market Definition
Problem space and customer need
Geographic and segment boundaries
Key constraints or scoping decisions
TAM (Total Addressable Market)
Top-down estimate with sources and reasoning
Bottom-up estimate for cross-validation
Reconciliation of the two approaches
Current TAM value (annual revenue opportunity)
SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market)
Which portion of TAM the product can realistically serve
Constraints: geography, language, channels, product capabilities, pricing tier
SAM as percentage of TAM with reasoning
SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)
Realistic share achievable in 1-3 years
Basis: competitive position, go-to-market capacity, current traction
SOM as percentage of SAM with reasoning
Market Summary Table
Metric
Current Estimate
2-3 Year Projection
TAM
SAM
SOM
Growth Drivers & Trends
Key factors that could expand or contract the market
Technology, regulatory, demographic, or behavioral shifts
Emerging segments or adjacent markets
Key Assumptions & Risks
Critical assumptions behind each estimate (numbered)
Confidence level for each (high / medium / low)
How to validate the most uncertain assumptions
What would materially change the estimates
Best Practices
Always provide both top-down and bottom-up estimates to triangulate
Use web search for current industry data, analyst reports, and market benchmarks
Cite sources for market data — avoid unsupported numbers
Be explicit about assumptions; label estimates vs. data
Distinguish between value-based (revenue) and volume-based (users/units) sizing
Consider currency and purchasing power parity for international markets
Flag where estimates have wide confidence intervals
Recommend specific data sources or research to sharpen estimates
Further Reading
Market Research: Advanced Techniques
User Interviews: The Ultimate Guide to Research Interviews
Crossing the Chasm: The Ultimate Guide For PMs
Product Innovation Masterclass
(video course)