ftd-detector

FTD Detector Skill Purpose Detect Follow-Through Day (FTD) signals that confirm a market bottom, using William O'Neil's proven methodology. Generates a quality score (0-100) with exposure guidance for re-entering the market after corrections. Complementary to Market Top Detector: Market Top Detector = defensive (detects distribution, rotation, deterioration) FTD Detector = offensive (detects rally attempts, bottom confirmation) When to Use This Skill English: User asks "Is the market bottoming?" or "Is it safe to buy again?" User observes a market correction (3%+ decline) and wants re-entry timing User asks about Follow-Through Days or rally attempts User wants to assess if a recent bounce is sustainable User asks about increasing equity exposure after a correction Market Top Detector shows elevated risk and user wants bottom signals Japanese: 「底打ちした？」「買い戻して良い？」 調整局面（3%以上の下落）からのエントリータイミング フォロースルーデーやラリーアテンプトについて 直近の反発が持続可能か評価したい 調整後のエクスポージャー拡大の判断 Market Top Detectorが高リスク表示の後の底打ちシグナル確認 Difference from Market Top Detector Aspect FTD Detector Market Top Detector Focus Bottom confirmation (offensive) Top detection (defensive) Trigger Market correction (3%+ decline) Market at/near highs Signal Rally attempt → FTD → Re-entry Distribution → Deterioration → Exit Score 0-100 FTD quality 0-100 top probability Action When to increase exposure When to reduce exposure Execution Workflow Phase 1: Execute Python Script Run the FTD detector script: python3 skills/ftd-detector/scripts/ftd_detector.py --api-key $FMP_API_KEY The script will: Fetch S&P 500 and QQQ historical data (60+ trading days) from FMP API Fetch current quotes for both indices Run dual-index state machine (correction → rally → FTD detection) Assess post-FTD health (distribution days, invalidation, power trend) Calculate quality score (0-100) Generate JSON and Markdown reports API Budget: 4 calls (well within free tier of 250/day) Phase 2: Present Results Present the generated Markdown report to the user, highlighting: Current market state (correction, rally attempt, FTD confirmed, etc.) Quality score and signal strength Recommended exposure level Key watch levels (swing low, FTD day low) Post-FTD health (distribution days, power trend) Phase 3: Contextual Guidance Based on the market state, provide additional guidance: If FTD Confirmed (score 60+): Suggest looking at leading stocks in proper bases Reference CANSLIM screener for candidate stocks Remind about position sizing and stops If Rally Attempt (Day 1-3): Advise patience, do not buy ahead of FTD Suggest building watchlists If No Correction: FTD analysis is not applicable in uptrend Redirect to Market Top Detector for defensive signals State Machine NO_SIGNAL → CORRECTION → RALLY_ATTEMPT → FTD_WINDOW → FTD_CONFIRMED ↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ └── RALLY_FAILED ←─────────────┘ FTD_INVALIDATED State Definition NO_SIGNAL Uptrend, no qualifying correction CORRECTION 3%+ decline with 3+ down days RALLY_ATTEMPT Day 1-3 of rally from swing low FTD_WINDOW Day 4-10, waiting for qualifying FTD FTD_CONFIRMED Valid FTD signal detected RALLY_FAILED Rally broke below swing low FTD_INVALIDATED Close below FTD day's low Quality Score (0-100) Score Signal Exposure 80-100 Strong FTD 75-100% 60-79 Moderate FTD 50-75% 40-59 Weak FTD 25-50% <40 No FTD / Failed 0-25% Prerequisites FMP API Key: Required. Set FMP_API_KEY environment variable or pass via --api-key flag. Python 3.8+: With requests library installed. API Budget: 4 calls per execution (well within FMP free tier of 250/day). Output Files JSON: ftd_detector_YYYY-MM-DD_HHMMSS.json Markdown: ftd_detector_YYYY-MM-DD_HHMMSS.md Reference Documents skills/ftd-detector/references/ftd_methodology.md O'Neil's FTD rules in detail Rally attempt mechanics and day counting Historical FTD examples (2020 March, 2022 October) skills/ftd-detector/references/post_ftd_guide.md Post-FTD distribution day failure rates Power Trend definition and conditions Success vs failure pattern comparison When to Load References First use: Load skills/ftd-detector/references/ftd_methodology.md for full understanding Post-FTD questions: Load skills/ftd-detector/references/post_ftd_guide.md Regular execution: References not needed - script handles analysis