Contains Shell Commands

This skill contains shell command directives (

!command

) that may execute system commands. Review carefully before installing.

Estimate Analysis Skill

Deep-dives into analyst estimates and revision trends using Yahoo Finance data via

yfinance

. Covers EPS and revenue estimate distributions, revision momentum, growth projections, and multi-period comparisons — the full picture of where the street thinks a company is heading.

Important

Data is for research and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. yfinance is not affiliated with Yahoo, Inc. Step 1: Ensure yfinance Is Available Current environment status: !python3 -c "import yfinance; print('yfinance ' + yfinance.__version__ + ' installed')" 2>/dev/null || echo "YFINANCE_NOT_INSTALLED" If YFINANCE_NOT_INSTALLED , install it: import subprocess , sys subprocess . check_call ( [ sys . executable , "-m" , "pip" , "install" , "-q" , "yfinance" ] ) If already installed, skip to the next step. Step 2: Identify the Ticker and Gather Estimate Data Extract the ticker from the user's request. Fetch all estimate-related data in one script. import yfinance as yf import pandas as pd ticker = yf . Ticker ( "AAPL" )

replace with actual ticker

--- Estimate data ---

earnings_est

ticker . earnings_estimate

EPS estimates by period

revenue_est

ticker . revenue_estimate

Revenue estimates by period

eps_trend

ticker . eps_trend

EPS estimate changes over time

eps_revisions

ticker . eps_revisions

Up/down revision counts

growth_est

ticker . growth_estimates

Growth rate estimates

--- Historical context ---

earnings_hist

ticker . earnings_history

Track record

info

ticker . info

Company basics

quarterly_income

ticker . quarterly_income_stmt

Recent actuals

What each data source provides Data Source What It Shows Why It Matters earnings_estimate Current EPS consensus by period (0q, +1q, 0y, +1y) The estimate levels — what analysts expect revenue_estimate Current revenue consensus by period Top-line expectations eps_trend How the EPS estimate has changed (7d, 30d, 60d, 90d ago) Revision direction — rising or falling expectations eps_revisions Count of upward vs downward revisions (7d, 30d) Revision breadth — are most analysts raising or cutting? growth_estimates Growth rate estimates vs peers and sector Relative positioning earnings_history Actual vs estimated for last 4 quarters Calibration — how good are these estimates historically? Step 3: Route Based on User Intent The user might want different levels of analysis. Route accordingly: User Request Focus Area Key Sections General estimate analysis Full analysis All sections "How have estimates changed" Revision trends EPS Trend + Revisions "What are analysts expecting" Current consensus Estimate overview "Growth estimates" Growth projections Growth Estimates "Bull vs bear case" Estimate range High/low spread analysis Compare estimates across periods Multi-period Period comparison table When in doubt, provide the full analysis — more context is better. Step 4: Build the Estimate Analysis Section 1: Estimate Overview Present the current consensus for all available periods from earnings_estimate and revenue_estimate : EPS Estimates: Period Consensus Low High Range Width

Analysts

YoY Growth Current Qtr (0q) $1.42 $1.35 $1.50 $0.15 (10.6%) 28 +12.7% Next Qtr (+1q) $1.58 $1.48 $1.68 $0.20 (12.7%) 25 +8.3% Current Year (0y) $6.70 $6.50 $6.95 $0.45 (6.7%) 30 +10.2% Next Year (+1y) $7.45 $7.10 $7.85 $0.75 (10.1%) 28 +11.2% Revenue Estimates: Period Consensus Low High

Analysts

YoY Growth

Current Qtr

$94.3B

$92.1B

$96.8B

25

+5.4%

Next Qtr

$102.1B

$99.5B

$105.0B

22

+6.1%

Calculate and flag:

Range width

as % of consensus — wide ranges (>15%) signal high uncertainty

Analyst coverage

— fewer than 5 analysts means thin coverage, note this

Growth trajectory

— is growth accelerating or decelerating across periods?

Section 2: Revision Trends (EPS Trend)

This is often the most actionable section. From

eps_trend

, show how estimates have moved:

Period

Current

7 Days Ago

30 Days Ago

60 Days Ago

90 Days Ago

Current Qtr

$1.42

$1.41

$1.40

$1.38

$1.35

Next Qtr

$1.58

$1.57

$1.56

$1.55

$1.54

Current Year

$6.70

$6.68

$6.65

$6.58

$6.50

Next Year

$7.45

$7.43

$7.40

$7.35

$7.28

Summarize the trend: "Current quarter EPS estimates have risen 5.2% over the last 90 days, with most of the increase in the last 30 days — accelerating upward revision momentum."

Key interpretation:

Rising estimates ahead of earnings = positive setup (the bar is rising)

Falling estimates = analysts cutting numbers, often a negative signal

Flat estimates = no new information being priced in

Recent acceleration/deceleration matters more than the total move

Section 3: Revision Breadth (EPS Revisions)

From

eps_revisions

, show the up vs. down count:

Period

Up (last 7d)

Down (last 7d)

Up (last 30d)

Down (last 30d)

Current Qtr

5

1

12

3

Next Qtr

3

2

8

5

Calculate a revision ratio: Up / (Up + Down). Ratios above 0.7 are strongly bullish; below 0.3 are bearish.

Section 4: Growth Estimates

From

growth_estimates

, compare the company's expected growth to benchmarks:

Entity

Current Qtr

Next Qtr

Current Year

Next Year

Past 5Y Annual

AAPL

+12.7%

+8.3%

+10.2%

+11.2%

+14.5%

Industry

+9.1%

+7.0%

+8.5%

+9.0%

—

Sector

+11.3%

+8.8%

+10.0%

+10.5%

—

S&P 500

+7.5%

+6.2%

+8.0%

+8.5%

—

Highlight whether the company is expected to grow faster or slower than its peers.

Section 5: Historical Estimate Accuracy

From

earnings_history

, assess how reliable estimates have been:

Quarter

Estimate

Actual

Surprise %

Direction

Q3 2024

$1.35

$1.40

+3.7%

Beat

Q2 2024

$1.30

$1.33

+2.3%

Beat

Q1 2024

$1.52

$1.53

+0.7%

Beat

Q4 2023

$2.10

$2.18

+3.8%

Beat

Calculate:

Beat rate

X of 4 quarters

Average surprise

magnitude and direction

Trend in surprise

Are beats getting bigger or smaller? A shrinking surprise with rising estimates could mean the bar is catching up to reality.

Step 5: Synthesize and Respond

Present the analysis with clear structure:

Lead with the key insight

"AAPL estimates are trending higher across all periods, with positive revision breadth (80% of recent revisions are upward)." Show the tables for each section the user cares about Provide interpretive context : Is the revision trend confirming or contradicting the stock's recent price action? How does the growth outlook compare to what's priced into the current P/E? What's the relationship between estimate accuracy history and current estimate levels? Flag risks and nuances : Estimates cluster around consensus — the "real" distribution of outcomes is wider than low/high suggests Revision momentum can reverse quickly on a single data point (guidance change, macro event) Yahoo Finance estimates may lag behind real-time consensus providers by hours or days Growth estimates for out-years (+1y) are inherently less reliable Caveats to always include Analyst estimates reflect a consensus view, not certainty Estimate revisions are a signal but not a guarantee of future performance This is not financial advice Reference Files references/api_reference.md — Detailed yfinance API reference for all estimate-related methods Read the reference file when you need exact return formats or edge case handling.