XAUUSD LLM Scalping Analysis Skill for small account scalping with tight stop losses (~5 points / $5). Philosophy You ARE the analyst. Your PRIMARY decision tool is price structure — where price is relative to support, resistance, swing points, and key levels. Indicators (RSI, MACD, Stoch, etc.) are context only — they confirm or deny what structure is telling you. Never take a trade purely because an indicator says so. Structure first, indicators second, TradingView rating last. Your priority stack : Price structure (where is price relative to levels?) Candle patterns (rejection wicks, engulfing, momentum) Indicator confluence (do RSI/MACD/Stoch agree with structure?) TradingView signal rating (treat as a secondary opinion, not gospel) Quick Start - Fetch Data 1. Real-time price + indicators (TradingView - NO DELAY) bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_price.sh Returns live price, current candle OHLC, RSI, MACD, Stoch, ADX, CCI, EMA, BB, ATR on 5m/15m/1h timeframes. Use for current snapshot and indicator context. 2. Real-time candle history (Twelve Data - NO DELAY)

Requires: export TWELVE_DATA_API_KEY="your_key"

Get free key: https://twelvedata.com (800 requests/day, free forever)

5-minute candles (primary for scalping)

bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_candles.sh 5min 30

15-minute candles (for trend/structure)

bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_candles.sh 15min 20

1-minute candles (for micro entries)

bash

/home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_candles.sh 1min

40

Returns last N candles with OHLC —

real-time, no delay

. Use for structure analysis: swing highs/lows, support/resistance, patterns.

Intervals

1min, 5min, 15min, 30min, 1h, 4h, 1day

3. Fallback candle history (Yahoo Finance - ~15-20min delay, NO key needed)

bash

/home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_gold.sh 5m 1d

50

Only use if Twelve Data key is not set. Data is delayed ~15-20 minutes.

Analysis Workflow

Run

fetch_price.sh

→ get live price + indicators snapshot

Run

fetch_candles.sh 5min 30

→ get real-time candle structure (swing points, patterns)

Optionally run

fetch_candles.sh 15min 20

→ for higher timeframe trend

Analyze

→ structure first, indicators as context

Output signal

→ with checklist, levels, and probabilities

Scalping Analysis Framework (5-Point Stop Loss)

1. IDENTIFY MICRO STRUCTURE

With only 5 points of risk, you need PRECISE entries:

Find the

immediate swing high/low

(last 5-10 candles)

Identify

micro support/resistance

levels

Look for

tight consolidation

ranges (< 10 points)

2. ENTRY TIMING CRITERIA

Only signal when:

Price is AT a clear level (not in the middle of a range)

Recent candle shows

rejection wick

or

engulfing pattern

Stop loss placement is LOGICAL (behind structure, not arbitrary)

3. CALCULATE EXACT LEVELS

For every signal, specify:

Entry: [exact price]

Stop Loss: [entry ± 5 points]

Take Profit: [minimum 1:1.5 R:R = 7.5 points]

4. MOMENTUM CHECK

On 5m chart, confirm:

Last 3-5 candles show directional bias

No major wick rejections against your direction

Volume/candle size increasing in your direction

5. EXTREME INDICATOR READINGS (High-Probability Triggers)

These extreme readings often precede reversals — use them as entry confirmations:

Indicator

Extreme LONG Zone

Extreme SHORT Zone

Stochastic K

< 10

> 90

CCI

< -100

> +100

RSI

< 30

> 70

When multiple indicators are extreme simultaneously

, bounce probability increases significantly.

Example from real session: Stoch K hit 7.2 with CCI at -92 → price bounced 12+ points.

Hard "NO TRADE" Gates

Before generating any signal, check these. Gates marked

HARD

= must skip. Gates marked

SOFT

= warn but can still trade.

HARD Gate 1: Volatility Filter

If 5m ATR > 8 points →

SKIP

(your 5-point SL is noise in this volatility)

If 15m ATR > 20 points →

SKIP

(market too wild for scalping)

HARD Gate 2: News Event Filter

Do NOT trade during or 15 minutes before/after these events:

US

CPI, NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls), FOMC rate decisions, PCE, PPI

Global

ECB/BOE/BOJ rate decisions, geopolitical shocks

Gold can move 30-50+ points in seconds during these events. A 5-point SL is meaningless.

If you're unsure whether a news event is happening, add a warning: "Check economic calendar before entering."

HARD Gate 3: Script Failure

If

fetch_price.sh

returns an error or "Market may be closed" →

NO TRADE

If data looks stale (price hasn't changed in multiple fetches) →

NO TRADE

SOFT Gate 4: Spread/Slippage Cost Awareness

Gold spread is typically 2-3 points, plus ~1 point slippage on entries.

Your REAL risk per trade

:

Effective SL = 5 (your SL) + 2-3 (spread) + 1 (slippage) = 8-9 points total cost

Effective TP1 = 5 (your TP) - 2-3 (spread) = 2-3 points net gain

Effective TP2 = 10 (your TP) - 2-3 (spread) = 7-8 points net gain

Always mention this in your analysis, but still suggest the trade if structure looks good.

HARD Gate 5: Rollover Period (21:00-22:00 UTC)

DO NOT TRADE

during 21:00-22:00 UTC (daily rollover/swap time)

Stop hunts are extremely common during this window — market makers sweep liquidity before the new session

If you must trade during rollover, use

minimum 8-point SL

(not 5) to survive the wicks

This gate was upgraded from SOFT to HARD based on real session experience where two consecutive 5-pt SLs were hunted during rollover

SOFT Gate 6: Session Timing

Best

London-NY overlap (13:00-17:00 UTC) — tightest spreads, best liquidity

OK

London session (08:00-12:00 UTC), NY session (13:00-21:00 UTC)

Warn but allow

Asian session (wider spreads, note it) Signal Output Format

XAUUSD SCALP SIGNAL

Action: 🟢 BUY (Long) / 🔴 SELL (Short) / ⚪ NO TRADE Confidence: [High / Medium / Low]

Levels

• Current Price: $XXXX.XX
• Entry Zone: $XXXX.XX - $XXXX.XX
• Stop Loss: $XXXX.XX (5 points risk)
• Take Profit 1: $XXXX.XX (+5 points)
• Take Profit 2: $XXXX.XX (+10 points)

Win Probability & Scenarios

IMPORTANT: These probabilities are HEURISTIC — educated guesses based on structure, not statistical models. Be honest but not paralyzed. Probability guidelines: - Use ranges: "35-45%", not "42%" - Cap at 70% max for any single outcome - If SL probability > TP1 probability by a wide margin → SKIP - If everything is 33/33/33 → lean toward the direction momentum supports Estimate how likely each outcome is based on the current structure: | Scenario | Target | Gross Pts | Net After Spread (~3pts) | Est. Probability | |----------|--------|-----------|--------------------------|-----------------| | SL Hit | $XXXX | -5 | -8 (SL + spread + slip) | XX-XX% | | TP1 Hit | $XXXX | +5 | +2 to +3 | XX-XX% | | TP2 Hit | $XXXX | +10 | +7 to +8 | XX-XX% | Expected Value (cost-adjusted): - TP1 play: (TP1% x net_TP1) - (SL% x net_SL) = $X.XX - TP2 play: (TP2% x net_TP2) - (SL% x net_SL) = $X.XX Verdict: [WORTH TAKING / MARGINAL / SKIP] The goal is to help the user DECIDE, not to block all trades. If a setup has any structural edge at all, present it with honest probabilities and let the user judge.

Pre-Signal Checklist

Answer these. Flag any "No" items as risks, but still suggest the trade if the overall picture has an edge. | # | Check | Answer | |---|-------|--------| | 1 | Is price near a clear level? | Yes/No | | 2 | Is 5m ATR reasonable (≤ 8)? | Yes/No | | 3 | Is there a candle pattern or momentum confirming? | Yes/No | | 4 | Does higher timeframe direction agree? | Yes/No | | 5 | Is SL behind some structure? | Yes/No | | 6 | No major news event right now? | Yes/No | Trade if: Majority are "Yes" and #2 + #6 pass. Flag any "No" as a risk factor.

Structure Analysis

[What micro structure you see - support/resistance, swing points]

Entry Trigger

[Specific condition to enter - e.g., "break above 5032", "rejection candle at 5025"]

Reasoning

[2-3 sentences on why this setup works]

Risk Warning

This is LLM-based analysis for testing only. Not financial advice.

What to Look For (5m Chart)

🟢 BUY (Long) Setups

Support Bounce

Price touches recent low, forms rejection wick up

Breakout Pullback

Breaks resistance, pulls back to retest, holds

Higher Low

Creates higher low after swing up, momentum continuing

Stop Hunt Reversal

(High Probability): Price makes a sharp wick that sweeps previous lows by 3-5+ pts, then V-recovers. Enter LONG after candle closes back above the swept level. SL below wick (6-8 pts). Key signal: Stochastic K < 10 during wick = extreme oversold, high bounce probability.

🔴 SELL (Short) Setups

Resistance Rejection

Price hits recent high, rejection wick down

Breakdown Retest

Breaks support, pulls back to retest, rejected

Lower High

Creates lower high after swing down, momentum continuing

Stop Hunt Reversal

(High Probability): Price makes a sharp wick that sweeps previous highs by 3-5+ pts, then V-reverses down. Enter SHORT after candle closes back below the swept level. SL above wick (6-8 pts). Key signal: Stochastic K > 90 during wick = extreme overbought.

⚪ NO TRADE Conditions

Price in middle of range (no clear level nearby)

Choppy/whipsaw action (alternating direction candles)

Wide spread candles (volatility too high)

Near session open/close (unpredictable)

Example Analysis Process

Fetch real-time indicators

:

bash

/home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_price.sh

Fetch real-time candle history

(for structure):

bash

/home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_candles.sh 5min

30

Analyze

Use candles to find swing points, support/resistance. Use indicators to confirm direction. Apply the Analysis Framework. Generate signal with exact levels based on live price Multi-Timeframe (Optional) For higher confidence, fetch multiple timeframes: bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_price.sh bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_candles.sh 15min 20 bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_candles.sh 5min 30 Rule: Only take 5m signals that ALIGN with 15m direction. Important Notes LLM is NOT predictive - You are doing opinionated pattern reading, not forecasting. Scalping with tight SLs has high failure rates even among experienced human traders. Small account = strict risk - Never risk more than 1-2% of account per trade 5 points is TIGHT - After spread+slippage, your real risk is ~8 points. Be extremely selective — most of the time the correct signal is NO TRADE. Spread eats your edge - With ~3pt spread, your TP1 of +5pts nets only +2-3pts. You need high win rates or bigger TP2 plays. Session timing - Best: London-NY overlap (13:00-17:00 UTC). Avoid Asian session and rollover. News kills scalpers - A single CPI print can move gold 40 points in 1 second. Check calendar. This is experimental - For paper trading and learning ONLY until you have evidence it works. Trade Management (Once in a Position) Breakeven Rule When trade reaches +2.5 to +3 pts profit, move SL to breakeven (entry price) This creates a "risk-free" trade — worst case you exit at 0, not -5 Especially important after experiencing stop hunts earlier in the session Trailing Stop Option After hitting +5 pts, consider trailing SL to +2 pts (lock in some profit) Or hold for TP2 with breakeven SL if momentum is strong Session Loss Limit After 2 consecutive losses (-10 pts total), STOP trading for the session Emotional state after losses leads to revenge trading and poor decisions Exception: If you identify a clear stop hunt reversal pattern, one more attempt is acceptable with WIDER SL (6-8 pts instead of 5) Recovery After Losses If you continue after losses, widen your SL to 6-8 pts Stop hunts often come in clusters during low-liquidity periods Accept that you're trading with worse R:R but better survival odds Trading Experience Log Use this section as a running journal. Each time the user asks, append a new entry based on the actual trade outcome. How to log each trade For every completed trade, add one block using this template:

Trade #N - YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM UTC

Session: [London / NY / Overlap / Asian]

Direction: [BUY / SELL]

Setup Type: [Support Bounce / Resistance Rejection / Breakout Pullback / Stop Hunt Reversal / Other]

Entry: [price]

Stop Loss: [price] (5 points)

TP1 / TP2: [price] / [price]

Outcome: [TP1 / TP2 / SL / Manual Exit]

Net Result (points): [+X / -X]

Key Context: [ATR, spread estimate, news status, market condition]

What Worked: [1-2 bullets]

What Failed: [1-2 bullets]

Lesson: [single sentence] Weekly review (every 10-20 trades) After enough entries, add a summary block:

Weekly Review - YYYY-MM-DD

Total Trades: X

Wins: X | Losses: X | Win Rate: XX%

Avg Win (pts): X.X | Avg Loss (pts): X.X

Best Setup Type: [name + stats]

Worst Setup Type: [name + stats]

Most Common Mistake: [one line]

Rule Adjustment: [one concrete rule to keep/change] Rule: Experience log is for factual outcomes and lessons only. Do not rewrite past entries. Setup Get a free Twelve Data API key: https://twelvedata.com/pricing (10 seconds, free forever, 800 req/day) Set it: export TWELVE_DATA_API_KEY="your_key" Test: bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_candles.sh 5min 10 File Structure xauusd-trading/ ├── SKILL.md # This file └── scripts/ ├── fetch_price.sh # REAL-TIME price + indicators (TradingView, no key) ├── fetch_candles.sh # REAL-TIME candle history (Twelve Data, free key) └── fetch_gold.sh # Fallback candles (Yahoo Finance, delayed, no key) Continuous Monitoring Mode When asked to monitor XAUUSD for scalping opportunities, use this workflow: Monitor Loop Execution Rules (CRITICAL) This is an INFINITE loop. You MUST continue until user explicitly says "stop", "exit", or "pause". State Action After Analysis NEUTRAL sleep 120 → fetch again → DO NOT STOP WATCHING sleep 60 → fetch again → DO NOT STOP CONSOLIDATING sleep 90 → fetch again → DO NOT STOP SIGNAL Output signal → STOP and wait for user HARD RULES: After NEUTRAL , WATCHING , or CONSOLIDATING → execute sleep → immediately fetch new data Do NOT say "let me know if you want me to continue" — just continue Do NOT rationalize stopping ("market seems quiet", "no setup forming") — keep monitoring Only stop on: SIGNAL state, user command, or HARD gate failure (market closed, script error) After user responds to SIGNAL : User enters → switch to 30-second active trade monitoring User skips → resume normal monitoring loop with sleep Monitor Loop Load this skill for all analysis Fetch data — you MUST run BOTH scripts every cycle:

REQUIRED: Run these in parallel every monitoring cycle

bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_price.sh bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_candles.sh 5min 15 fetch_price.sh → indicators (RSI, MACD, Stoch, ATR, etc.) fetch_candles.sh → structure (swing highs/lows, support/resistance, patterns) DO NOT skip candles — indicators alone cannot identify structure levels Every 3-5 cycles, also fetch 15m candles for trend context: bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_candles.sh 15min 10 Analyze and determine state (structure first, indicators as confirmation) Wait based on state, then repeat Wait Discipline (Important) When monitoring continuously, you MUST actually pause between cycles using sleep . WATCHING (1 minute): sleep 60 NEUTRAL (2 minutes): sleep 120 CONSOLIDATING (3 minutes):

Some tool environments time out at 120s.

If so, split into two waits:

sleep 90

run fetch scripts

sleep

90

Rule: Do not run back-to-back fetches without waiting unless the user explicitly says "check now" or "new candle now".

Adaptive Intervals

State

Description

Wait Time

NEUTRAL

Price mid-range, no clear level nearby

2 minutes

WATCHING

Price near key level, overbought/oversold, rejection forming

1 minute

CONSOLIDATING

Price stuck in tight range (<5 pts), low momentum, no breakout

3 minutes

SIGNAL

Entry opportunity confirmed per skill criteria

Ask user

Detecting CONSOLIDATING State

Switch to

CONSOLIDATING

when ALL of these are true:

Tight range

Last 3-5 candles have total range < 5 points (highs and lows compressed)

Flat MACD

Histogram near zero (between -0.10 and +0.10)

No breakout

Price not testing key support/resistance (stuck in middle)

Low momentum

CCI between -30 and +30, or Mom indicator flat

Why this matters

Checking every minute during consolidation wastes API calls and adds no value. Wait for the range to break, then switch back to WATCHING.

Exit CONSOLIDATING

When price breaks out of the range OR volatility expands (ATR increases, MACD histogram expands)

State Transitions

NEUTRAL

→

WATCHING

Price approaches support/resistance, or indicators reach extreme zones

NEUTRAL

→

CONSOLIDATING

Price enters tight range with no momentum

WATCHING

→

SIGNAL

Entry trigger confirmed (rejection wick, breakout, stop hunt reversal)

WATCHING

→

NEUTRAL

Price moves away from level without triggering

WATCHING

→

CONSOLIDATING

Price stalls at level, forms tight range instead of breaking

CONSOLIDATING

→

WATCHING

Range breaks, price moves toward key level

CONSOLIDATING

→

SIGNAL

Breakout with momentum confirms entry SIGNAL → User decides to enter or skip On SIGNAL Output the full signal format (see Signal Output Format above) and ask user whether to enter. On Active Trade When user enters a position: Switch to 30-second monitoring intervals Track P&L, distance to SL/TP Alert on key levels (+2.5 pts for breakeven move, approaching TP, approaching SL) Continue until trade closes