thinking-in-bets

Domain Context This skill implements a proven product management framework. The approach combines best practices from industry leaders and is designed for practical application in day-to-day PM work. Input Requirements Context about your product, feature, or problem Relevant data, research, or constraints (recommended but optional) Clear articulation of what you're trying to achieve Thinking in Bets What It Is Thinking in Bets is a framework for improving decision quality by separating decisions from outcomes . The core insight: a good decision can have a bad outcome, and a bad decision can have a good outcome—luck is always involved. Most people judge decisions by their outcomes (called "resulting"). This is backwards. You can only control the quality of your decision, not the outcome. The key shifts: Move from "Was I right?" to "Was my thinking process good?" Move from "What happened?" to "What did I know at the time?" Move from implicit assumptions to explicit, testable beliefs When to Use It Use Thinking in Bets when you need to: Evaluate past decisions without outcome bias clouding judgment Make decisions under uncertainty where luck will influence results Improve team decision-making in meetings and planning Set up pre-mortems and kill criteria for projects Shorten feedback loops on decisions with delayed outcomes Reduce cognitive biases like overconfidence, hindsight bias, and sunk cost Run better meetings that surface true opinions, not groupthink When Not to Use It The decision is trivial with low stakes You have perfect information (rare) You're looking for permission to take a risk you've already decided on Resources Books: Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away by Annie Duke Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman