startup-business-analyst-financial-projections

Financial Projections Create a comprehensive 3-5 year financial model with revenue projections, cost structure, headcount planning, cash flow analysis, and three-scenario modeling (conservative, base, optimistic) for startup financial planning and fundraising. Use this skill when Working on financial projections tasks or workflows Needing guidance, best practices, or checklists for financial projections Do not use this skill when The task is unrelated to financial projections You need a different domain or tool outside this scope Instructions Clarify goals, constraints, and required inputs. Apply relevant best practices and validate outcomes. Provide actionable steps and verification. If detailed examples are required, open resources/implementation-playbook.md . What This Command Does This command builds a complete financial model including: Cohort-based revenue projections Detailed cost structure (COGS, S&M, R&D, G&A) Headcount planning by role Monthly cash flow analysis Key metrics (CAC, LTV, burn rate, runway) Three-scenario analysis Instructions for Claude When this command is invoked, follow these steps: Step 1: Gather Model Inputs Ask the user for essential information: Business Model: Revenue model (SaaS, marketplace, transaction, etc.) Pricing structure (tiers, average price) Target customer segments Starting Point: Current MRR/ARR (if any) Current customer count Current team size Current cash balance Growth Assumptions: Expected monthly customer acquisition Customer retention/churn rate Average contract value (ACV) Sales cycle length Cost Assumptions: Gross margin or COGS % S&M budget or CAC target Current burn rate (if applicable) Funding: Planned fundraising (amount, timing) Pre/post-money valuation Step 2: Activate startup-financial-modeling Skill The startup-financial-modeling skill provides frameworks. Reference it for: Revenue modeling approaches Cost structure templates Headcount planning guidance Scenario analysis methods Step 3: Build Revenue Model Use Cohort-Based Approach: For each month, track: New customers acquired Existing customers retained (apply churn) Revenue per cohort (customers × ARPU) Expansion revenue (upsells) Formula: MRR (Month N) = Σ across all cohorts: (Cohort Size × Retention Rate × ARPU) + Expansion Project: Monthly detail for Year 1-2 Quarterly detail for Year 3 Annual for Years 4-5 Step 4: Model Cost Structure Break down operating expenses: 1. Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) Hosting/infrastructure (% of revenue or fixed) Payment processing (% of revenue) Variable customer support Third-party services Target gross margin: SaaS: 75-85% Marketplace: 60-70% E-commerce: 40-60% 2. Sales & Marketing (S&M) Sales team compensation Marketing programs Tools and software Target: 40-60% of revenue (early stage) 3. Research & Development (R&D) Engineering team Product management Design Target: 30-40% of revenue 4. General & Administrative (G&A) Executive team Finance, legal, HR Office and facilities Target: 15-25% of revenue Step 5: Plan Headcount Create role-by-role hiring plan: Reference team-composition-analysis skill for: Roles by stage Compensation benchmarks Hiring velocity assumptions For each role: Title and department Start date (month/quarter) Base salary Fully-loaded cost (salary × 1.3-1.4) Equity grant Track departmental ratios: Engineering: 40-50% of team Sales & Marketing: 25-35% G&A: 10-15% Product/CS: 10-15% Step 6: Calculate Cash Flow Monthly cash flow projection: Beginning Cash Balance + Cash Collected (revenue, consider payment terms) - Operating Expenses - CapEx = Ending Cash Balance Monthly Burn = Revenue - Expenses (if negative) Runway = Cash Balance / Monthly Burn Rate Include Funding Events: Timing of raises Amount raised Use of proceeds Impact on cash balance Step 7: Compute Key Metrics Calculate monthly/quarterly: Unit Economics: CAC (S&M spend / new customers) LTV (ARPU × margin% / churn rate) LTV:CAC ratio (target > 3.0) CAC payback period (target < 18 months) Efficiency Metrics: Burn multiple (net burn / net new ARR) - target < 2.0 Magic number (net new ARR / S&M spend) - target > 0.5 Rule of 40 (growth% + margin%) - target > 40% Cash Metrics: Monthly burn rate Runway in months Cash efficiency Step 8: Create Three Scenarios Build conservative, base, and optimistic projections: Conservative (P10): New customers: -30% vs. base Churn: +20% vs. base Pricing: -15% vs. base CAC: +25% vs. base Base (P50): Most likely assumptions Primary planning scenario Optimistic (P90): New customers: +30% vs. base Churn: -20% vs. base Pricing: +15% vs. base CAC: -25% vs. base Step 9: Generate Financial Model Report Create comprehensive markdown report with tables: Section 1: Executive Summary 3-5 year financial snapshot Key metrics at scale Funding requirements Section 2: Model Assumptions Revenue model and pricing Growth assumptions Cost structure assumptions Headcount plan summary Section 3: Revenue Projections Monthly/quarterly tables showing: | Month | New Customers | Total Customers | MRR | ARR | Growth % | |-------|---------------|-----------------|-----|-----|----------| Section 4: Cost Breakdown | Department | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | % Revenue | |------------|--------|--------|--------|-----------| | COGS | $X | $Y | $Z | XX% | | S&M | $X | $Y | $Z | XX% | | R&D | $X | $Y | $Z | XX% | | G&A | $X | $Y | $Z | XX% | Section 5: Headcount Plan | Department | Current | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | |------------|---------|--------|--------|--------| | Engineering| X | Y | Z | W | Section 6: Cash Flow Analysis | Quarter | Revenue | Expenses | Net Burn | Cash Balance | Runway | |---------|---------|----------|----------|--------------|--------| Section 7: Key Metrics | Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Target | |--------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | CAC | $X | $Y | $Z | <$A | | LTV | $X | $Y | $Z | >$B | | Burn Multiple | X | Y | Z | <2.0 | Section 8: Scenario Analysis | Scenario | Year 3 ARR | Customers | Burn | Runway | |----------|------------|-----------|------|--------| | Conservative | $Xم | Y | $Z | W mo | | Base | $X | Y | $Z | W mo | | Optimistic | $X | Y | $Z | W mo | Section 9: Funding Requirements Amount needed Use of proceeds breakdown Milestones to achieve Expected valuation impact Section 10: Validation Sanity checks performed Benchmark comparisons Risk factors Assumptions to monitor Step 10: Save Model Offer to save as markdown file: Suggest filename: financial-projections-YYYY-MM-DD.md Include note that user can convert to Excel/Sheets Provide formulas for key calculations Financial Model Best Practices Do: Use cohort-based revenue model Include 3 scenarios Show monthly detail (Year 1-2) Calculate key metrics Validate against benchmarks Document all assumptions Show cash flow and runway Include fundraising milestones Don't: Be overly optimistic on growth Underestimate costs Forget fully-loaded compensation Ignore cash timing Skip scenario analysis Use static headcount Forget to validate Integration with Other Commands Pairs well with: /market-opportunity - Use SOM for revenue ceiling /business-case - Include projections in business case Example Usage User: /financial-projections Claude: I'll create a comprehensive financial model for your startup. Let me gather the key inputs. What's your business model? → "B2B SaaS, subscription-based" Current state? → "$50K MRR, 100 customers, 5-person team, $500K cash" Growth assumptions? → "Expect 15% MoM growth, 10% monthly churn, $500 ACV" [Claude builds complete model with all sections] Notes Model building takes 45-90 minutes Results in comprehensive planning tool Update monthly to track vs. actuals Share with investors and board Use for fundraising decks Basis for budget and hiring decisions