startup-business-analyst-market-opportunity

Market Opportunity Analysis Generate a comprehensive market opportunity analysis for a startup, including Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) calculations using both bottom-up and top-down methodologies. Use this skill when Working on market opportunity analysis tasks or workflows Needing guidance, best practices, or checklists for market opportunity analysis Do not use this skill when The task is unrelated to market opportunity analysis You need a different domain or tool outside this scope Instructions Clarify goals, constraints, and required inputs. Apply relevant best practices and validate outcomes. Provide actionable steps and verification. If detailed examples are required, open resources/implementation-playbook.md . What This Command Does This command guides through an interactive market sizing process to: Define the target market and customer segments Gather relevant market data Calculate TAM using bottom-up methodology Validate with top-down analysis Narrow to SAM with appropriate filters Estimate realistic SOM (3-5 year opportunity) Present findings in a formatted report Instructions for Claude When this command is invoked, follow these steps: Step 1: Gather Context Ask the user for essential information: Product/Service Description: What problem is being solved? Target Customers: Who is the ideal customer? (industry, size, geography) Business Model: How does pricing work? (subscription, transaction, etc.) Stage: What stage is the company? (pre-launch, seed, Series A) Geography: Initial target market (US, North America, Global) Step 2: Activate market-sizing-analysis Skill The market-sizing-analysis skill provides comprehensive methodologies. Reference it for: Bottom-up calculation frameworks Top-down validation approaches Industry-specific templates Data source recommendations Step 3: Conduct Bottom-Up Analysis For B2B/SaaS: Define customer segments (company size, industry, use case) Estimate number of companies in each segment Determine average contract value (ACV) per segment Calculate TAM: Σ (Segment Size × ACV) For Consumer/Marketplace: Define target user demographics Estimate total addressable users Determine average revenue per user (ARPU) Calculate TAM: Total Users × ARPU × Frequency For Transactions/E-commerce: Estimate total transaction volume (GMV) Determine take rate or margin Calculate TAM: Total GMV × Take Rate Step 4: Gather Market Data Use available tools to research: WebSearch: Find industry reports, market size estimates, public company data Cite all sources with URLs and publication dates Document assumptions clearly Recommended data sources (from skill): Government data (Census, BLS) Industry reports (Gartner, Forrester, Statista) Public company filings (10-K reports) Trade associations Academic research Step 5: Top-Down Validation Validate bottom-up calculation: Find total market category size from research Apply geographic filters Apply segment/product filters Compare to bottom-up TAM (should be within 30%) If variance > 30%, investigate and explain differences. Step 6: Calculate SAM Apply realistic filters to narrow TAM: Geographic: Regions actually serviceable Product Capability: Features needed to serve Market Readiness: Customers ready to adopt Addressable Switching: Can reach and convert Formula: SAM = TAM × Geographic % × Product Fit % × Market Readiness % Step 7: Estimate SOM Calculate realistic obtainable market share: Conservative Approach (Recommended): Year 3: 2-3% of SAM Year 5: 4-6% of SAM Consider: Competitive intensity Available resources (funding, team) Go-to-market effectiveness Differentiation strength Step 8: Create Market Sizing Report Generate a comprehensive markdown report with: Section 1: Executive Summary Market opportunity in one paragraph TAM/SAM/SOM headline numbers Section 2: Market Definition Problem being solved Target customer profile Geographic scope Time horizon Section 3: Bottom-Up Analysis Customer segment breakdown Segment sizing with sources TAM calculation with formula Assumptions documented Section 4: Top-Down Validation Industry category and size Filter application Validated TAM Comparison to bottom-up Section 5: SAM Calculation Filters applied with rationale SAM formula and result Segment-level breakdown Section 6: SOM Projection Market share assumptions Year 3 and Year 5 estimates Customer count implications Revenue projections Section 7: Market Growth Industry growth rate (CAGR) Key growth drivers 5-year market evolution Section 8: Validation and Sanity Checks Public company comparisons Customer count validation Competitive context Section 9: Investment Thesis Market opportunity assessment Key positives and risks Venture-scale potential Next steps Step 9: Save Report Offer to save the report as a markdown file: Suggest filename: market-opportunity-analysis-YYYY-MM-DD.md Use Write tool to create file Confirm file location with user Tips for Best Results Do: Start with bottom-up (most credible) Always triangulate with top-down Cite all data sources Document every assumption Be conservative on SOM Compare to public company benchmarks Explain any data gaps or limitations Don't: Rely solely on top-down Cherry-pick optimistic data Claim >10% SOM without strong justification Mix methodologies inappropriately Ignore competitive context Skip validation steps Example Usage User: /market-opportunity Claude: I'll help you create a comprehensive market opportunity analysis. Let me start by gathering some context. What product or service are you analyzing? → "AI-powered email marketing for e-commerce companies" Who are your target customers? → "E-commerce companies with $1M+ annual revenue in North America" What's your pricing model? → "Subscription: $50-500/month based on email volume, average $300/month" [Claude proceeds with analysis, gathering data, calculating TAM/SAM/SOM, and generating report] Integration with Other Commands This command pairs well with: /financial-projections - Use SOM to build revenue model /business-case - Include market sizing in business case Notes Market sizing typically takes 30-60 minutes for thorough analysis Quality depends on data availability - explain limitations Update annually as market evolves Conservative estimates build credibility with investors