- Task Estimation
- When to use this skill
- Sprint Planning
-
- Decide what work to include in the sprint
- Roadmap creation
-
- Build long-term plans
- Resource planning
-
- Estimate team size and schedule
- Instructions
- Step 1: Story Points (relative estimation)
- Fibonacci sequence
- 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21
Story Point guidelines
1 Point (Very Small)
Example: text change, constant value update
Time: 1-2 hours
Complexity: very low
Risk: none
2 Points (Small)
Example: simple bug fix, add logging
Time: 2-4 hours
Complexity: low
Risk: low
3 Points (Medium)
Example: simple CRUD API endpoint
Time: 4-8 hours
Complexity: medium
Risk: low
5 Points (Medium-Large)
Example: complex form implementation, auth middleware
Time: 1-2 days
Complexity: medium
Risk: medium
8 Points (Large)
Example: new feature (frontend + backend)
Time: 2-3 days
Complexity: high
Risk: medium
13 Points (Very Large)
Example: payment system integration
Time: 1 week
Complexity: very high
Risk: high
- **
- Recommended
- **
- Split into smaller tasks
21+ Points (Epic)
- **
- Required
- **
- Must be split into smaller stories Step 2: Planning Poker Process : Product Owner explains the story Team asks questions Everyone picks a card (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13) Reveal simultaneously Explain highest/lowest scores Re-vote Reach consensus Example : Story: "Users can upload a profile photo" Member A: 3 points (simple frontend) Member B: 5 points (image resizing needed) Member C: 8 points (S3 upload, security considerations) Discussion: - Use an image processing library - S3 is already set up - File size validation needed Re-vote → consensus on 5 points Step 3: T-Shirt Sizing (quick estimation)
T-Shirt sizes
- **
- XS
- **
-
1-2 Story Points (within 1 hour)
- **
- S
- **
-
2-3 Story Points (half day)
- **
- M
- **
-
5 Story Points (1-2 days)
- **
- L
- **
-
8 Story Points (1 week)
- **
- XL
- **
- 13+ Story Points (needs splitting) ** When to use ** : - Initial backlog grooming - Rough roadmap planning - Quick prioritization Step 4: Consider risk and uncertainty Estimation adjustment : interface TaskEstimate { baseEstimate : number ; // base estimate risk : 'low' | 'medium' | 'high' ; uncertainty : number ; // 0-1 finalEstimate : number ; // adjusted estimate } function adjustEstimate ( estimate : TaskEstimate ) : number { let buffer = 1.0 ; // risk buffer if ( estimate . risk === 'medium' ) buffer = 1.3 ; if ( estimate . risk === 'high' ) buffer = 1.5 ; // uncertainty buffer buffer *= ( 1 + estimate . uncertainty ) ; return Math . ceil ( estimate . baseEstimate * buffer ) ; } // Example const task = { baseEstimate : 5 , risk : 'medium' , uncertainty : 0.2 // 20% uncertainty } ; const final = adjustEstimate ( task ) ; // 5 * 1.3 * 1.2 = 7.8 → 8 points Output format Estimation document template
Task: [Task Name]
Description [work description]
Acceptance Criteria
[ ] Criterion 1
[ ] Criterion 2
[ ] Criterion 3
Estimation
- **
- Story Points
- **
-
5
- **
- T-Shirt Size
- **
-
M
- **
- Estimated Time
- **
- 1-2 days
Breakdown
Frontend UI: 2 points
API Endpoint: 2 points
Testing: 1 point
Risks
Uncertain API response time (medium risk)
External library dependency (low risk)
Dependencies
User authentication must be completed first
Notes
- Need to discuss design with UX team
- Constraints
- Required rules (MUST)
- Relative estimation
-
- Relative complexity instead of absolute time
- Team consensus
-
- Agreement from the whole team, not individuals
- Use historical data
-
- Plan based on velocity
- Prohibited (MUST NOT)
- Pressuring individuals
-
- Estimates are not promises
- Overly granular estimation
-
- Split anything 13+ points
- Turning estimates into deadlines
-
- estimate ≠ commitment
- Best practices
- Break Down
-
- Split big work into smaller pieces
- Reference Stories
-
- Reference similar past work
- Include buffer
-
- Prepare for the unexpected
- References
- Scrum Guide
- Planning Poker
- Story Points
- Metadata
- Version
- Current version
-
- 1.0.0
- Last updated
-
- 2025-01-01
- Compatible platforms
- Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini Tags
estimation
agile
story-points
planning-poker
sprint-planning
project-management
Examples Example 1: Basic usage Example 2: Advanced usage