Paths: File paths ( shared/ , references/ , ../ln-* ) are relative to skills repo root. If not found at CWD, locate this SKILL.md directory and go up one level for repo root. Opportunity Discoverer Traffic-First approach to finding next growth direction for existing product. Core Philosophy Anti-pattern: Idea → Surveys → Product → "where's traffic?" Correct: Traffic → Niche → MVP → Launch under existing demand The 90% Developer Bug Most fail because they: Invent idea with no analogs Ask 5 people "would you pay?" (they say yes for a hot dog) Build product with round sum Launch with "now let's set up traffic" Discover: no traffic exists, never did No marketer will build funnel for what cold traffic doesn't buy. Traffic-First Principles

Principle

Anti-pattern

1

Traffic exists BEFORE product

Building then searching for traffic

2

No surveys

— measure real search demand

Asking "would you buy?"

3

Existing demand

— launch under what people search

Creating new category

4

One channel, one idea

— no spreading

Testing 5 channels at once

5

KILL early

— fail fast, don't waste time

Scoring all ideas equally

Supporting Methodology

Marc Andreessen (pmarca):

"Validate market at practical level — go get paying customers to demonstrate market exists."

Sam Altman (YC):

"Who desperately needs the product? Best answer is going after large part of small market."

"Test idea by launching or trying to sell — get letter of intent before code."

Purpose & Scope

Discover growth direction BEFORE Epic creation

Filter ideas through sequential KILL funnel

Output: one recommended idea + one traffic channel

Position: before ln-210 (Epic Coordinator)

When to Use

Use this skill when:

Product exists, seeking next growth direction

Have 3-10 potential ideas/niches

Want to validate opportunity before committing

Need to choose ONE channel to focus on

Do NOT use when:

No product context (greenfield startup)

Already have validated direction (skip to ln-210)

Prioritizing existing Stories (use ln-230)

Input Parameters

Parameter

Required

Description

Default

ideas

No

Comma-separated list

-

context

No

Product description for generation

-

strict

No

Strict KILL thresholds

true

Input modes:

ideas="idea1, idea2, idea3"

— evaluate list

context="SaaS for X"

— generate ideas from product

Both — generate + add user ideas

KILL Funnel Pipeline

Ideas pass through 6 sequential filters.

Fail any filter = KILL immediately.

Idea → [Traffic?] → [Demand?] → [Competition?] → [Revenue?] → [Interest?] → [MVP?] → SURVIVOR

↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓

KILL KILL KILL KILL KILL KILL

Filter 1: Traffic Channel

Question:

Where do people look for this solution?

Research:

WebSearch: "[idea] how people find solutions"

WebSearch: "[idea] customer acquisition channels"

Valid channels:

Channel

Signal

Best for

Search/SEO

People Google "[problem] solution"

Info products, tools

YouTube

Tutorial searches exist

Education, how-to

Marketplaces

Category exists (ProductHunt, AppStore)

Apps, plugins

Communities

Active subreddits, forums

Niche products

Paid Ads

Competitors running ads

Proven demand

Outbound

Clear ICP, reachable

B2B high-ticket

KILL if:

No identifiable channel where people actively look for solution.

Output:

Channel name + rationale

Filter 2: Existing Demand

Question:

Are people already searching for this?

Research:

WebSearch: "[idea] search volume {current_year}"

WebSearch: "[idea] Google Trends"

WebSearch: "[problem] forum discussions reddit"

Demand signals:

Signal

Source

Interpretation

Search volume

Google Keyword Planner, Ahrefs

Direct demand

Trend direction

Google Trends

Growing/declining

Forum activity

Reddit, HackerNews, StackOverflow

Pain level

Competitor traffic

SimilarWeb, SEMrush

Market size

KILL thresholds:

Volume

Verdict

>10K/month

Strong demand

1K-10K/month

Viable niche

<1K/month

KILL

— insufficient demand

Output:

Monthly volume estimate + trend

Filter 3: Competition (Blue/Red Ocean)

Question:

Can we enter this market?

Research:

WebSearch: "[idea] competitors {current_year}"

WebSearch: "[idea] alternatives comparison"

Classification:

Competitors

Index

Ocean

Verdict

0

1

Blue

Opportunity (validate demand exists)

1-2

2

Emerging

Best entry point

3-5

3

Growing

Differentiation needed

6-10

4

Mature

Hard but possible

>10

5

Red

KILL

— commoditized

KILL if:

Index 5 (Red Ocean) — too many competitors, race to bottom.

Output:

Competitor count + Ocean type

Filter 4: Revenue Potential

Question:

Will people pay enough?

Research:

WebSearch: "[idea] pricing SaaS"

WebSearch: "[competitor] pricing plans"

WebSearch: "[idea] willingness to pay"

Revenue indicators:

ARPU

Market type

Viability

>$100/user/mo

Enterprise

High margin

$50-100

Professional

Good

$20-50

Prosumer

Viable

$5-20

Consumer

Volume needed

<$5

Ad-supported

KILL

KILL if:

<$20/user — not worth the effort for small team.

Output:

Estimated $/user + pricing model

Filter 5: Personal Interest

Question:

Will you enjoy building this?

Method:

AskUserQuestion — rate 1-5

Rate your interest in building [idea]:

1 = Meh, would do for money only

2 = Low interest

3 = Neutral

4 = Interested

5 = Excited, would build for free

Why this matters:

Low interest = burnout in 3 months

High interest = sustained motivation through hard times

You'll spend 2+ years on this

KILL if:

Score 1-2 — you'll quit before PMF.

Output:

Score 1-5

Filter 6: MVP-ability

Question:

Can you launch in 4 weeks?

Assessment:

Factor

Question

Red flag

Tech

Existing skills or need to learn?

New stack

Dependencies

External APIs, partners needed?

Waiting on others

Content

Significant content creation?

Months of writing

Regulations

Legal/compliance requirements?

Licenses, approvals

Team

Solo or need to hire?

Can't start alone

Time estimates:

Weeks

Complexity

Verdict

1-2

Solo, existing skills

Best

2-4

Minor learning curve

Good

4-8

Some new tech

Acceptable

>8

Significant infrastructure

KILL

KILL if:

>8 weeks to MVP — too slow to validate.

Output:

Weeks estimate + blockers

Workflow

Phase 1: Input Processing (2 min)

Parse input:

If

ideas

split comma-separated list
If
context: generate 5-7 ideas via WebSearch If both: combine Validate count: Minimum: 3 ideas Maximum: 10 ideas Create output directory: mkdir -p docs/reference/research/ Output: Idea queue (3-10 items) Phase 2: KILL Funnel (per idea) Process each idea sequentially through all 6 filters: FOR each idea: Filter 1: Traffic Channel IF no channel → KILL, log reason, NEXT idea Filter 2: Existing Demand IF <1K/month → KILL, log reason, NEXT idea Filter 3: Competition IF Index 5 → KILL, log reason, NEXT idea Filter 4: Revenue IF <$20/user → KILL, log reason, NEXT idea Filter 5: Interest AskUserQuestion for rating IF score 1-2 → KILL, log reason, NEXT idea Filter 6: MVP-ability IF >8 weeks → KILL, log reason, NEXT idea → SURVIVOR: add to survivors list Token efficiency: Process ONE idea at a time KILL early = less research needed Clear context after each idea Phase 3: Rank Survivors (2 min) If survivors exist: Calculate composite score: Score = Demand_score + (6 - Competition_index) + Revenue_score + Interest + MVP_score Sort by score descending Select TOP recommendation If no survivors: Report: "All ideas killed. Rethink direction." Show KILL log for learning Phase 4: Output (2 min) Generate: docs/reference/research/[YYYY-MM-DD]-discovery.md Structure:

Opportunity Discovery: [Date]

Summary

Ideas analyzed: X

Survivors: Y

Killed: Z

TOP RECOMMENDATION ** Idea: ** [Name] ** Channel: ** [Primary channel] ** Why: ** [2-3 sentence rationale]

Key metrics:

Demand: [volume]/month

Competition: [ Index ] [ Ocean type ] - Revenue: $[X]/user - MVP: [X] weeks

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Next Steps 1. Create Epic with ln-210 for top recommendation 2. Focus on [channel] as primary acquisition 3. Target MVP in [X] weeks Time-Box Ideas Estimated time 3 15-20 min 5 25-35 min 10 50-70 min Note: KILL funnel is faster than full scoring — bad ideas die early. Integration Position in workflow: Product exists ↓ ln-201 (Opportunity Discovery) ← THIS SKILL ↓ ln-210 (Epic Coordinator) ↓ ln-220 (Story Coordinator) Dependencies: WebSearch (all filters except Interest) AskUserQuestion (Interest filter) Write, Bash (output) Critical Rules Traffic first — no traffic channel = no analysis KILL immediately — don't score dead ideas One recommendation — avoid paralysis No surveys — real search data only Interest matters — you'll quit if bored MVP speed — slow launch = slow learning Example Usage With ideas: ln-201-opportunity-discoverer ideas="AI writing tool, code review bot, translation API" With context: ln-201-opportunity-discoverer context="B2B developer tools SaaS" Example output:

Opportunity Discovery: 2026-01-29

TOP RECOMMENDATION ** Idea: ** Code review bot ** Channel: ** SEO (developers search "code review tool") ** Why: ** Growing demand (15K/mo), emerging market (3 competitors), $50/user pricing proven, can MVP in 3 weeks with existing skills.

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| | AI writing | Competition | Red Ocean (25+ competitors) | | Translation API | Revenue | Commoditized, <$10/user | Reference Files File Purpose filter_criteria.md KILL thresholds for all filters channel_analysis.md Traffic channel identification discovery_template.md Output markdown template MANDATORY READ: shared/references/research_tool_fallback.md Version: 2.0.0 Last Updated: 2026-01-29

安装

Summary

Ideas analyzed: X

Survivors: Y

Key metrics:

Demand: [volume]/month

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